Association between clonal plasma cell S-phase after autologous stem cell transplantation and survival outcomes in multiple myeloma.

Abstract

e19564 Background: Risk stratification in multiple myeloma (MM) relies on baseline staging systems and cytogenetic abnormalities, yet early relapse occurs in a subset of patients despite favorable risk features. Prior studies showed that clonal plasma cell S-phase assessed by flow cytometry using the plasma cell proliferation (PCPRO) assay at diagnosis and at autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) identifies biologically high-risk disease. The prognostic significance of clonal plasma cell S-phase following ASCT has not been well defined. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed MM patients who underwent ASCT within one year of diagnosis between January 1, 2013, and August 31, 2024. Patients without available post-ASCT clonal plasma cell S-phase assessment were excluded, yielding 150 evaluable patients. The proportion of clonal plasma cells in S-phase was determined by DNA content between G0/G1 and G2/M peaks and reported as a percentage. S-phase was assessed at the first post-ASCT marrow evaluation at day +60 (D45–75) and/or day +100 (D76–130), using the earlier assessment when both were available. Patients were classified as low (<2%) or high (≥2%) post-ASCT S-phase. Landmark progression-free survival (PFS) analyses were performed from the post-transplant assessment. Multivariable Cox models adjusted for cytogenetic risk, maintenance therapy, disease response at transplantation, International Staging System (ISS), and age. Results: Among 150 evaluable patients, 36 (24%) had high post-ASCT S-phase (≥2%) and 114 (76%) had low post-ASCT S-phase (<2%). Median age at ASCT was higher in the high S-phase group (64.5 vs 61.0 years; p=0.063), and advanced ISS stage (II/III) was more frequent (78% vs 57%; p=0.02). Cytogenetic risk, induction regimen, depth of response at transplantation, and maintenance therapy were similar between groups. Patients with high post-ASCT S-phase had significantly inferior PFS compared with those with low S-phase (median 17.0 vs 39.7 months; p=0.0003). On multivariable analysis, post-ASCT S-phase ≥2% remained independently associated with inferior PFS (HR 1.76, 95% CI 1.00–3.09; p=0.049). In an exploratory analysis among patients with paired S-phase assessments at the time of ASCT and post-ASCT, dynamic S-phase trajectories further stratified outcomes. Median PFS was longest in patients with persistently low S-phase (low→low; 39.7 months), intermediate in those converting from high to low S-phase (high→low; 27.2 months), and shortest in patients with newly emergent or persistently high post-ASCT S-phase (low→high: 15.0 months; high→high: 11.0 months) p=0.0019. Conclusions: Elevated proliferative activity of residual clonal plasma cells following ASCT identifies a biologically high-risk subset of MM patients with early relapse. Dynamic changes in post-ASCT S-phase further refine post-transplant risk stratification.