Forecasting incidence and mortality rates of bladder cancer in older adults using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA).

Abstract

e16615 Background: Bladder cancer remains a significant global health burden, particularly in older adults, with its incidence and mortality varying widely across regions. The median age at diagnosis of bladder is 73 years with 80% over the age of 65 in United States. Age of patients can impact management often requiring a multidisciplinary approach. Methods: Incidence rates for individuals aged 70+ across seven superregions (Central, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, High-income countries, North Africa and Middle East, Latin America and Carribean, South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast, East Asia and Oceania) were extracted from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database and analyzed using ARIMA in Stata 18.0 to forecast rates from 2022–2050. Mortality rates were forecasted using the GBD foresight visualization tool. Percentage changes in incidence and mortality compared to 2021 were calculated and analyzed. Results: Bladder cancer incidence rates are projected to increase in North Africa and the Middle East (+6.8% by 2030, +23.0% by 2050), Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania (+5.2% by 2030, +17.0% by 2050), South Asia (+2.0% by 2030, +7.3% by 2050), Latin America and the Caribbean (+1.6% by 2030, +5.2% by 2050), and Sub-Saharan Africa (+1.8% by 2030, +6.5% by 2050). In contrast, High-Income Regions and Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia are expected to decline, with High-Income Regions showing the steepest decrease (-10.6% by 2030, -52.0% by 2050). Mortality rates are projected to rise in High-Income Regions (+3.6% by 2030, +18.8% by 2050) andCentral Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia (+3.6% by 2050, despite a -0.9% drop by 2030). Declines by 2030 are anticipated in Latin America and the Caribbean (-2.9%), North Africa and the Middle East (-4.5%), Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania (-3.0%), and Sub-Saharan Africa (-2.9%), though many regions show stabilization or modest increases by 2050, such as South Asia (+7.0%) and Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania (+12.4%). Conclusions: The study underscores the need for greater emphasis on regions in Asia and Africa expected to see an increase in incidence rates. The increase in mortality in many regions call for greater research in geriatric oncology and targeted interventions in older adults. Incidence rate (per 100,000 population) Mortality rates (per 100,000 population) Region 2021 2030 2050 2021 2030 2050 Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia 64.99 61.28 57.28 39.78 39.41 41.22 High-income countries 110.38 98.67 53.03 48.40 50.13 57.49 Latin America and Caribbean 29.84 30.31 31.38 22.34 21.69 22.31 North Africa and Middle East 68.04 72.69 83.69 34.90 33.33 35.24 South Asia 18.75 19.14 20.13 15.39 15.26 16.47 Southeast Asia, East Asia and Oceania 40.60 42.71 47.49 24.02 23.30 27.01 Sub-Saharan Africa 26.57 27.06 28.31 23.64 22.96 22.90