Measuring pancreatic cancer spatial conformation to predict recurrence risk after total neoadjuvant therapy.

Abstract

e14626 Background: Despite advancements in neoadjuvant therapy and surgical techniques, patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) often experience high recurrence rates after total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) and resection. Existing tumor response scoring systems, such as the College of American Pathologists (CAP) guidelines, fail to stratify recurrence risk effectively, emphasizing the need for novel, objective approaches. Methods: This study evaluated spatial characteristics of residual cancer and stroma in a multi-site cohort of 203 patients with resected PDAC following TNT, not having achieved a major pathologic response (CAP 2 or 3). Whole slide images (WSI) of hematoxylin and eosin-stained sections were digitized and analyzed using artificial intelligence to perform tissue segmentation. Metrics quantifying spatial morphology and configuration, inspired by principles of landscape ecology, were computed to explore spatial features of the tumor microenvironment (TME). Statistical models (recursive partitioning and regression tree [RPRT] model and Cox model with backwards eliminations) incorporating these features were developed to stratify recurrence risk. Results: Five metrics were used for risk classification model build. Three models successfully classified patients into high- and low-risk groups based on spatial metrics. Models demonstrated moderate discriminatory power (C-statistics: 0.560–0.566) and showed that increased tumor fragmentation, like stromal patch density and cancer patch shape index, were strongly associated with improved outcomes. Conclusions: Integrating spatial metrics of cancer-stroma configuration enhances risk stratification beyond conventional scoring systems. Given increased tumor fragmentation is associated with improved outcomes, these data indirectly suggest ecological mechanisms of treatment resistance. This approach offers a pathway toward personalized post-operative management strategies to improve outcomes in PDAC. Risk classification models. Model Description Event/n Median DFS (95% CI) HR(95% CI) p-value C-statistics 1(RPRT) High risk: log standard deviation of the stroma shape index > 0.651 87 / 101 8.22(5.72 – 10.1) 1.64(1.20 – 2.25) 0.002 0.562 Low risk: log standard deviation of the stroma shape index ≤ 0.651 71 / 102 11.90(9.24 – 25.1) Ref 2(RPRT) High risk: log standard deviation of the stroma shape index > 0.651 & mean cancer shape index ≤ 1.775 58 / 63 7.23(5.19 – 9.63) 1.82(1.31 – 2.52) 0.0003 0.560 Low risk: (log standard deviation of the stroma shape index > 0.651 & mean cancer shape index > 1.775) or log standard deviation of the stroma shape index ≤ 0.651 100 / 140 11.57(9.24 – 17.92) Ref 3(Backwards elimination) High risk: PI * > median 86 / 101 8.02(6.08 – 9.86) 1.73(1.26 – 2.37) 0.0007 0.566 Low risk:PI * ≤ median 72 / 102 15.72(9.97 – 25.05) Ref *PI: (0.2701 * log mean stroma area) + (0.3905 * log edge density).