SEER-based projections of U.S. meningioma and glioblastoma incidence and survival through 2050.

Abstract

e14052 Background: Forecasting future central nervous system tumor burden is needed for workforce planning & trial feasibility. We quantified U.S. incidence trends, projected incidence to 2050, & evaluated overall survival (OS) for meningioma & glioblastoma (GBM). Methods: Retrospective registry study using SEER*Stat case listings (Nov 2024 submission). We identified first primary GBM (ICD-O-3 9440/3; SEER Research Data, 17 registries; 2000-2022) & first meningioma (benign/borderline/malignant; SEER Research Limited-Field Data, 21 registries; 2000-2022). Age-adjusted incidence (per 100,000; 2000 U.S. standard) was modeled with log-linear annual percent change (APC) in prespecified primary windows (GBM 2000-2022; meningioma 2004-2022). Projections extrapolated fitted trends from 2022 to estimate 2050 incidence. OS was estimated by Kaplan-Meier & modeled with Cox regression adjusted for age group, sex, & race/ethnicity (missing retained as a category). SEER data are de-identified; IRB review not required. Analyses were performed in Python (Anaconda). Results: We analyzed 48,019 GBM and 261,643 meningioma cases. GBM incidence was stable overall (APC 0.12%/y; 95% CI -0.03 to 0.28; p=0.128) but increased in females (0.27%/y; 0.07 to 0.47; p=0.014). Meningioma incidence increased substantially (APC 2.62%/y; 2.14 to 3.10; p<0.001). Projected 2050 incidence rose modestly for GBM (3.00 in 2022 to 3.19 per 100,000) but more than doubled for meningioma (11.50 to 25.55); a sensitivity including Illinois was similar. GBM median OS was 9 months. Death occurred in 90.4% of GBM & 32.0% of meningioma patients. Male sex was associated with higher mortality (GBM HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.05-1.09; meningioma HR 1.50, 1.47-1.52; both p<0.001). Conclusions: In SEER, GBM incidence is largely stable, whereas meningioma incidence is rising steeply and is projected to drive a substantially larger U.S. incidence burden by 2050. These findings support planning for increased diagnostic/surgical capacity and long-term survivorship resources for meningioma while sustaining therapeutic innovation for GBM. Key incidence, projection, and survival endpoints. Measure GBM (overall) GBM (female) Meningioma Cases, n 48,019 19936 261,643 APC (%/y), primary window 0.12 (-0.03 to 0.28); p=0.128 0.27 (0.07 to 0.47); p=0.128 2.62 (2.14 to 3.10); p<0.001 Age-adjusted incidence 2022 (per 100,000) 3.00 2.40 11.50 Projected incidence 2050 (per 100,000; % change) 3.19 (+6.3%) 2.64 (+10%) 25.55 (+122.2%) Male vs female mortality (Cox HR, 95% CI) 1.07 (1.05-1.09) - 1.50 (1.47-1.52) APC, annual percent change; CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio. Incidence rates are per 100,000 & age-adjusted to the 2000 U.S. standard population. APC from log-linear models (GBM 2000–2022; meningioma 2004–2022).Cox models adjusted for age group, sex, & race/ethnicity (missing retained as category).